Implications of fewer Americans getting married.

What are the implications for your organization from:

[1] a 18% decline in the marriage rate in USA in 14 years;

[2] In 2015 births to unwed mothers were 40.3% of births in USA , and 49% in Duval County, Florida;

[3] In 2015, the total “not married including separated” in the USA was 51.8% of total population 15 years and older and in Duval County, Florida 56.8%?

All these number were  different from 1960 as indicated by the chart for unwed mothers. In 1960 about 5% of births were to unwed mothers in USA. This was an increase of 35 percentage points to 40.3% in 55 years.

[4] The USA fertility rate declined from 3.654 per women in 1960 to 1.743 in 2015, a 52.3% decrease in 55 years. This rate due to abortion has been below the replacement rate of 2.1 without immigration since 1972 except 2006 & 2007.

[5] Births Financed by Medicaid in Florida 50% in 2014. Other states in link.

[6] Three attributes of adults that will result in lowering the poverty rate:

“Young people can virtually assure that they and their families will avoid poverty if they follow three elementary rules for success –

(a) get married and stay married [Families headed by a single female have a Poverty Rate of 28.8% – over five times higher than married couple families of 5.3% in data released September 2016 by U.S. Census Bureau],

(b) complete at least a college education [only 4.5% of Americans over 25 with a college degree are in poverty], and

(c) work full time [Adults that work full time have a low Poverty Rate of 2.4%]

Based on an analysis of Census data, people who followed all three of these rules had only a 2 percent chance of being in poverty and a 72 percent chance of joining the middle class (defined as above $55,000 in 2010.”

Modified from Ron Haskins of the Brookings Institution, testifying before Congress on June 5, 2012

See other details below:

Source for chart. This is a dramatic decline in marriages in the United States of America. (USA). The most recent data show a U.S. new marriage rate of 6.9 per 1,000 people. This is down from 1990 rate of 8.5, and 18% decrease in 14 years. This compares with an average rate of 4.6 for countries in the European Union. Is this a sign of the future for the USA as it becomes more secular like Europe?

Number of live births to unmarried women in USA in 2015: 1,601,527. Percent of all births to unmarried women: 40.3% up from 5% in 1960. See chart below. The city of Jacksonville in 2015 was 49% up from 47% in 2011. Jacksonville was 9% points higher than USA in 2015.

Figure 1 is a line graph of the number of nonmarital births, the nonmarital birth rate (per 1,000 unmarried women), and the percentage of births to unmarried women from 1940 through 2013 (preliminary) for the United States using vital statistics data.

With the marriage rate going down, the births to unwed mothers has increased dramatically from about 5% in 1960 [see green line in chart above]. In Jacksonville almost 1 in 2 births are to unwed mothers.

One final data point for Duval County, Florida in 2015 in the table below. The total not married including separated was 56.8% of total population 15 years and older. The USA was 51.8%.  Source: American Community Survey by Bureau of Census.

Total population 15 years and older 1915 718,413 100%
Never married 245,243 34.1%
Now married, except separated 310,627 43.2%
Separated 19,512 2.7%
Widowed 42,484 5.9%
Divorced 100,547 14.0%
Total not married including separated 407,786 56.8%

United States fertility rate  (births per women) declined from 3.654 in 1960 to 1.743 in 2015. The chart will show that all this decline occurred between 1960 and 1976. The “Replacement rate or fertility without net immigration requires each woman to replace herself by producing 2.1 children per woman, ” Source

Abortion rates

U.S. Poverty Statistics released September 2016 by the U.S. Census Bureau [i]. Source. They represent various categories of the population and the percentage of people within those categories in a poverty status (more on Poverty Threshold page):

U.S. Poverty Statistics – Marital Status

All Families %
Families in Poverty Poverty Families
[millions] [millions] Rate in Poverty
Married Couple 60.3 3.2 5.3 37.2
Single Mother 15.6 4.5 28.8 52.3
Single Father 6.3 0.9 14.3 10.5
Total 82.2 8.6 10.5 100.0

 Overall 10.5% of the families in America are in poverty.  Families headed by a single female have a Poverty Rate of 28.8% – over five times higher than married couple families.

There are 15.6 million families headed by a single mother which represent 19% of all families in America.  But 4.5 million of these single mom families are in poverty which account for an astounding 52% of all the families in poverty.  These statistics are the basis for the conclusion that marriage is one of the best defenses against poverty.    

U.S. Poverty Statistics – Working Age Adults 

Working %
Age Amercans Working
Americans in Poverty Poverty Age
[millions] [millions] Rate in poverty
Full time workers 105.7 2.5 2.4 10.2
Part time workers 44.6 6.9 15.5 28.3
Not working 47.0 15.0 31.9 61.5
Total 197.3 24.4 12.4 100.0

 Adults that work full time have a low Poverty Rate of 2.4%, which is not surprising.  There are 47.0 million adults between the ages of 18 and 64 (working age) that are not working. They total 24% of working age adults, but account for 62% of working age adults in poverty.

U.S. Poverty Statistics – Age of the Population

All Americans % age
Americans in Poverty Poverty in
[millions] [millions] Rate Poverty
Under 18 years 73.7 14.5 19.7 33.6
18-64 years 197.3 24.4 12.4 56.6
65 years & older 47.5 4.2 8.8 9.7
Total 318.5 43.1 13.5 100.0

The child Poverty Rate is 19.7%, therefore, one in five children are in a poverty status. Most of these children come from single parent families as shown above. The Poverty Rate for seniors was 8.8% which is lower than the population as a whole of 13.5%.  This is due to the Social Security and Medicare Programs which have worked well at protecting seniors from poverty.

U.S. Poverty Statistics – Educational Attainment

Over 25 Poverty % by
years old in Poverty rate education
(millions) (millions) % in poverty
No high school diploma 23.5 7.2 30.6 30.0
High school diploma, no college 62 8 12.9 33.3
Some college, no degree 57.6 5.6 9.7 23.3
College degree or higher 71.9 3.2 4.5 13.3
215.0 24.0 11.2 100.0

The educational level attained by individuals has a dramatic impact on poverty.  30.6% of adults over 25 years old without a high school diploma are in poverty versus 4.5% for those with a college degree.

U.S. Poverty Threshold

Number Persons in Household Income $
1 12,082
2 15,391
3 18,871
4 24,257
5 28,741
6 32,542

Henry Luke 7/29/2017, modified 7/31/2017

This entry was posted in Discipleship Training, FBC Sunday School, One2Won Discipleship Training and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to Implications of fewer Americans getting married.

  1. Pingback: Dying Alone | My Personal Journey by Henry Luke

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